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John May's avatar

For me, a gentleman in his later work life, I can recall a time when my work product was written longhand, faxed to an assistant, then typed and returned to me for final edits, which I then returned for a final version for distribution. That seemed needlessly laborious even in the early 90s, and I suggested that we work on laptops with email. One was purchased for me, and I learned DOS because no one else knew what to do. I started to produce at a much greater pace, and I was encouraged to train co-workers so they could do likewise. Initially, there was some bump in pay, though not commensurate with our production. Eventually, our pay stagnated, though our production was not expected to diminish. This is a not uncommon experience.

Now come the LLMs, which do in fact make some elements of my job easier. I’m no longer in the avant-garde of these innovations, though my production is greater. My younger colleagues, OTOH, have used these innovations to create systems of production that are much faster than we have used in the past. Production is up and that initial market efficiency has resulted in a modest pay increase for me, and a larger one for my digital native colleagues who have developed these tools. The market efficiency is gradually diminishing, but the demand for production is unrelenting. I have cautioned my co-workers that we may be planning our own obsolescence once the market adjusts to the production expectations and the profit level can no longer exploit this temporary market efficiency. But the lure of immediate pay gains trumps any desire to wrest control of the means of production. This is America, and we will gladly pay Tuesday for a hamburger today.

I hate hate to reference Malcolm Gladwell, but I can usually tell when work product has relied on GPT based on a “Blink” test. There are many tells (rule of threes, “While x may be true, one must consider y”, etc.), and sometimes users will deliberately include typos for authenticity. But the Blink test can discern whether the voice is authentic, though that doesn’t help with calculations or coding.

There is a lot to consider here, as the college-educated class may be relegated to lower paying service jobs. A new definition of intelligence will be mandated. Who cares if you have access to a fund of information and can answer Jeopardy questions when the libraries of information plundered by LLMs grant you easy access? The hope would be that we would be able to use that information for purposes other than capital accumulation, but that requires self-awareness, compassion, and probably sacrifice on behalf of others.

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Uncertain Eric's avatar

Many things about this are conflicting—and true. The threat isn’t AI itself. It’s the economic paradigm that deploys it. AI is a vibe amplifier, a productivity multiplier, and in the hands of capital, a tool for workforce extraction on an unprecedented scale.

The displacement has already begun. Junior software hiring is drying up. ShadowIT and ShadowAI emerged because individuals inside orgs are using these tools quietly, without permission, just to keep pace or make things easier. Management didn’t lead this. They’re just now realizing they’re behind.

By the end of the year, the workforce will be in an obvious state of collapse. Not everywhere at once, but enough to break denial. Management is only incentivized to optimize their silo, not protect people. And the middle class has long functioned as a semi-meritocratic pseudo UBI—a buffer. That buffer is being erased.

This is the shift from Software-as-a-Service to Employee-as-a-Service. Add one or two zeroes to a SaaS invoice, and a platform replaces a person. It’s already happening. And it will accelerate.

This isn’t a defense. It’s a description. Even if one company resists, another won’t. Even if one region regulates, another won’t. The tech moves freely. It will hollow out regional payrolls and reroute capital into subscription services owned by the same platforms that trained the models.

The capitalists will win. And, as the vibes have been warning for generations—that means everyone else loses.

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